What lessons can be drawn from the 2004 elections, and how do they apply to the 2006 contests? Can Democrats successfully translate President Bush’s low approval ratings into control over Congress? In careful analysis of both contests, the authors evaluate strategies and their impact on the outcome of the midterm elections. This updated edition, available in March, examines structural changes Republicans developed to help them in House contests, assesses how candidates decide whether or not to challenge incumbents, and discusses how tactics used in 2006 may come to dominate the 2008 presidential nomination contests. Hillary Clinton’s prospects both as a candidate for the Democratic nomination and for the general election as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the relatively large number of potential Republican candidates receive measured analysis.

Employing many data sources, the authors examine the actual midterm election results and then turn to their analysis of the National Election Study surveys. As with all books in the Change and Continuity series, the authors present election data in a straightforward, accessible manner and make sure to incorporate and discuss the most recent research literature.

Part 1. The 2004 Presidential Election Contest

1. The Nomination Struggle

2. The General Election Campaign

3. The Election Results

Part 2. Voting Behavior in the 2004 Presidential Election

4. Who Voted?

5. Social Forces and the Vote

6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote

7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice

8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote

Part 3. The 2004 and 2006 Congressional Elections

9. Candidates and Outcomes in 2004

10. The Congressional Electorate in 2004

11. The 2006 Congressional Elections

Part 4. The 2004 and 2006 Elections in Perspective

12. The 2004 and 2006 Elections and the Future of American Politics

Appendix

Notes

Suggested Readings

Index

"I don't think there is a more relevant book for someone interested in teaching (or understanding) contemporary American elections. The data, as always, are exquisite—clear, to the point, and cleverly interpreted against the backdrop of other recent presidential and congressional elections. Nobody does it better than Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde."

“Change and Continuity is the only text on elections that comprehensively covers the principal factors that shape the electorate’s voting behavior. I want my students to be able to compare findings on the patterns of partisanship among members of different social groups and the impact of issues, performance, and partisanship on vote choice—-Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde’s book provides all of this between two covers. Each new volume describes the ‘big picture’ and integrates many of the findings from previous election years. This feature is especially appealing because it allows me to stress long-term trends and patterns, rather than isolated or idiosyncratic findings."

“Change and Continuity is a great supplement that elucidates crucial concepts such as realignment, dealignment, retrospective voting, incumbency and the continuing role of the South in national politics, all at a level appropriate for undergraduates. As well, the focus on ‘continuity’ enables students to understand why there are so few swing states and why so much about elections is predictable for the historically-informed citizen.”

"I have used Change and Continuity every time I have taught Voting and Elections, and I can't imagine teaching the course without this book. My students benefit from the authors' historical analyses and insights into the electoral process. This book provides substantive information for class discussions and a methodological model for students’ data analysis papers and class presentations. It uniquely places its coverage of current electoral politics into the context of several recent elections. This allows students to link their (often very limited) observations of contemporary political behavior to a broader context."

David W. Rohde is professor of political science and director of the Political Institutions and Public Choice Program at Duke University. He is author of Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House (1991), coeditor of Home Style and Washington Work (1989), and coauthor of Supreme Court Decision Making (1976).

John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is author of Why Parties? (1995) and Before the Convention (1980). He is a past president of both the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association. In 2001 he was elected a fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University. He is coauthor of Value Change in Global Perspective (1995) and author of Political Attitudes in America (1983), The Political Socialization of Black Americans (1977), and Generational Change in American Politics (1975). Along with John H. Aldrich and David W. Rohde he is coauthof thirteen additional books on presidential and congressional elections published by CQ Press.