For nearly 50 years, facing a static enemy, American intelligence analysis was based on a hierarchical decision-making process that oftentimes insulated analysts from criticism and interaction with the ultimate consumers of their product. In countering asymmetric threats and non-state adversaries, the model is simply outmoded. A flatter, horizontal, networked solution has proven much more effective in today’s world.

In his second edition, Robert Clark—former CIA analyst and executive in the Intelligence Directorate—explains how a collaborative, target-centric process both attends to the needs of the customer and promotes more effective collection. Based on feedback from users, early chapters introduce the concept of model synthesis more gradually. Recent intelligence events—with the Iraqi WMD Commission Report at center stage—illustrate the importance of target-centric analysis. This revision also includes broader treatment of collection strategies, systems analysis, and analyst-customer interaction as well as more attention to denial and deception, and to both counterterrorism and counterintelligence analysis.

This new edition contains updates of the practical information and day-to-day details from the previous book told as only an experienced intelligence hand could. Extensive descriptions of the art of target modeling and organizational analysis, as well as thoroughly detailed overviews of the quantitative and predictive techniques used in intelligence analysis make this book an essential tool for illuminating an often shadowy world.

Preface

Introduction
Why We Fail
What the Book Is About
Summary

Part 1. Introduction to Target-centric Analysis

1. The Intelligence Process
The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
Intelligence as a Target-centric Process
The Target
Summary

2. Defining the Intelligence Problem
Statement of the Problem
The Problem Definition Product
Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task
Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems
Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Problem
Summary

3. An Analysis Approach to the Target
The Concept of a Model
Using Target Models for Analysis
Counterintelligence Analysis and Response
Target Model Combinations
Summary

4. The Analytic Spectrum
The Conflict Spectrum
The Temporal Analysis Spectrum
Indications and Warning
Summary

Part 2. Synthesis: Creating the Model

5. Overview of Models in Intelligence
Creating a Conceptual Model
Generic Models
Combination Models
Geographic Profiling
Summary

6. Sources of Intelligence Information
Existing Reports
A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources
The Dominant Intelligence Sources
Specialized Technical Collection
Summary

7. Populating the Model
Evaluating Evidence
Combining Evidence
Structured Argumentation
Alternative Target Models
Summary

8. Collection Strategies
The U.S. Collection Management Problem
The Problem Breakdown and Target Model Relationship
Identifying Gaps
Developing the Collection Strategy
Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps
Summary

9. Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial and Deception
Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods
Higher-Level Denial and Deception
Countering Denial and Deception
Signaling
Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D
Summary

Part 3. Predictive Analysis

10. Prediction
Introduction to Prediction
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
The Predictive Approach
Scenarios
Indicators and the Role of Intelligence
Summary
11. Predictive Techniques
Extrapolation
Projection
Forecasting
Summary

12. Shaping Forces
Inertia
Countervailing Forces
Contamination
Synergy
Feedback
Regulation
Summary

13. Organizational Analysis
Structure
Function
Process
Summary

14. Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis
Technology Assessment
Systems Analysis
Systems Simulation
Summary

15. The Analyst and the Customer
The Analyst
The Customer
Analyst-Customer Interaction
Presenting Analysis Results
Summary

Appendix: A Tale of Two NIEs
The Yugoslavia NIE
The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE

“Intelligence is nothing if it is not about outthinking one’s adversary. In an age where analysis is often reduced to short-term situation reports and keeping up with current news, Clark reminds us of the systematic approaches that are required to understand an adversary in depth while accommodating the nuances of modern intelligence collection and the increased sophistication of our adversaries. In an increasingly uncertain world, Dr. Clark’s important volume will help analysts bound the uncertainty within their own thinking and improve the analysis they provide to U.S. decision makers and other intelligence consumers.”

“Clark’s timely and well-researched explanation of intelligence as the collaborative product of information and analysis uses clear examples and explanations of strengths and weaknesses. Both practitioners and students of intelligence will find fresh multidisciplinary perspectives, reflecting a good understanding of how to respond to current criticisms of analysis from the Intelligence Reform Act, the 9/11 Commission, and the Commission on Capabilities of the United States Regarding WMD.”

“In tackling intelligence analysis, Clark has taken on a difficult and complex task. His rigorous approach, unburdened by political posturing, will inform the ongoing debate over the intelligence community’s performance, potential, and contribution to national security.”

“This timely addition to the intelligence analysis literature provides direction to a field that urgently needs to improve its current practices. For seasoned intelligence and law enforcement analysts, key players in Dr. Clark’s new collaborative approach to intelligence analysis, this book will be a frequent reference and guide. Neophyte analysts will gain years of insight and an understanding of their role in this paradigmshifting approach. Faculty and students will learn from the author’s innovative approach to the analysis of intelligence and the presentation of the analytic product. The end products of this approach will provide policy makers and a wide range of customers with actionable intelligence.”

Robert M. Clark has been an intelligence analyst for 36 years, currently serving as an independent consultant assessing threats to U.S. space systems. He helped develop and is a faculty member for the Intelligence Community Officers’ Course. Clark is the former president and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation. He served in the United States Air Force as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer, reaching the rank of lieutenant colonel, and in the CIA as an analyst and as the chief of the Directorate of Intelligence’s Analytic Support Group. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. He is a presidential interchange executive, a member of the Virginia state bar, and a patent attorney.