Due to the ever-evolving tactics of our enemies, the American intelligence community has been compelled to find more effective methods of managing intelligence analysis. In Intelligence Analysis, Robert M. Clark demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the end-user.

Comprehensively revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the new fourth edition accounts for recent events and is rife with new examples throughout. Brand new and significantly revised coverage includes chapters on managing the analytic unit, analytic methodologies, and the analytic spectrum, bringing a heightened level of clarity to this outstanding, must-have resource.

Clark’s practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practioners alike.

NEW TO THIS EDITION:

• Thoroughly revised and updated to include the impact of recent events, including intelligence successes such as the takedown of Bin Laden.
• NEW chapter, “Managing Analysis,” has been added to increase the utility and value of the book to managers in the intelligence community and assist them in setting up and running analysis organizations.
• NEW chapter on “Analytic Methodologies” includes subjects such as structured argumentation, alternative analysis, and the role of information technology.
• The chapter on “The Analytic SApectrum” has been extensively revised to focus more on operational and tactical intelligence and the challenges posed by the demand for current intelligence.
• The chapter entitled “The Intelligence Customer” has been expanded to discuss the new range of customers that U.S. intelligence now supports.
• NEW appendix on planning the analysis project is added to guide students and analysts in preparing to conduct in-depth analytic efforts.

FEATURES & BENEFITS:

• With over 70 tables and figures, the book’s excellent graphics program helps illustrate various techniques and models.
• “Analysis Principles” boxes summarize touchstones of intelligence analysis.
• A case study contrasting NIE case studies at the end of the book.
• All of the book’s tables and figures are available as JPGs for download and use in the classroom at college.cqpress.com/sites/intel-resources/

NEW TO THIS EDITION:

• Thoroughly revised and updated to include the impact of recent events, including intelligence successes such as the takedown of Bin Laden.
• NEW chapter, “Managing Analysis,” has been added to increase the utility and value of the book to managers in the intelligence community and assist them in setting up and running analysis organizations.
• NEW chapter on “Analytic Methodologies” includes subjects such as structured argumentation, alternative analysis, and the role of information technology.
• The chapter on “The Analytic SApectrum” has been extensively revised to focus more on operational and tactical intelligence and the challenges posed by the demand for current intelligence.
• The chapter entitled “The Intelligence Customer” has been expanded to discuss the new range of customers that U.S. intelligence now supports.
• NEW appendix on planning the analysis project is added to guide students and analysts in preparing to conduct in-depth analytic efforts.

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Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Preface
Introduction
     Why We Fail
     Failure to Share Information
     Failure to Analyze Collected Material Objectively
     Failure of the Customer to Act on Intelligence
     What the Book Is About
Summary

Part 1 Introduction to Target-Centric Analysis

1. The Intelligence Process
        The Nature of Intelligence: Reducing Uncertainty in Conflict
        The Traditional Intelligence Cycle
        Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process
        The Target
        Summary
2. Defining the Intelligence Problem
        Statement of the Problem
        The Problem Definition Product
        Detailed Problem Definition: Strategies-to-Task
        Strategies-to-Task and Complex Problems
        Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Problem
        Summary
3. An Analysis Approach to the Target
        The Concept of a Model
        Using Target Models for Analysis
        Counterintelligence Analysis
        Target Model Combinations
        Summary
4. The Analytic Spectrum
        The Conflict Spectrum
        The Temporal Analysis Spectrum
        Indications and Warning
        Summary

Part 2 Synthesis: Creating the Model

1. Overview of Models in Intelligence
        Creating a Conceptual Model
        Generic Models
        Combination Models
        Geographic Profiling
        Summary
2. Sources of Intelligence Information
        Existing Reports
        A Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources
        Literal Intelligence Sources
        Nonliteral Intelligence
        Summary 
3. Evaluating and Collating Data
        Evaluating Evidence
        Combining Evidence
        Summary
4. Collection Strategies
        The U.S. Collection Management Problem
        The Problem Breakdown andTarget Model Relationship
        Identifying Gaps
        Developing the Collection Strategy
        Planning for Future Collection: Fillingthe Long-Term Gaps
        Summary
5. Denial, Deception, and Signaling
        Denial and Deception
        Defense against D&D: Protecting IntelligenceSources and Methods
        Higher Level Denial and Deception
        Countering Denial and Deception
        Signaling
        Analytic Tradecraft in a World of D&D
        Summary

Part 3 Predictive Analysis

1. Analytic Methodologies 
        Structured Argumentation
        Alternative Target Models
        Competitive and Alternative Target Models
        Summary
2. Prediction
        Introduction to Prediction
        Convergent and Divergent Phenomena
        The Predictive Approach
        Scenarios
        Summary
3. Predictive Techniques
        Extrapolation
        Projection
        Forecasting
        Summary
4. Shaping Forces
        Inertia
        Countervailing Forces
        Contamination
        Synergy
        Feedback
        Regulation
        Summary
5. Organizational Analysis
        Structure
        Function
        Process
        Summary
6. Technology and Systems Analysis
        Technology Assessment
        Systems Analysis
        Systems Simulation
        Summary
7. The Intelligence Customer 
        Introduction
        Analyst-Customer Interaction
        Presenting Analysis Results
        Summary
8. Managing Analysis
        Introduction
        Structure
        Process
        Limits and Boundaries
        Function
        Summary

Appendix I: A Tale of Two NIEs
     The Yugoslavia NIE
     The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE
Appendix II: Example Project Plan
     Problem Definition
     Précis
     Research Plan
Index
About the Author

Robert M. Clark is an independent consultant performing space systems threat analyses for the US Intelligence Community. He is also a faculty member of the Intelligence and Security Academy and a professor of intelligence studies at the University of Maryland University College. Dr. Clark served in the United States Air Force as a SIGINT collector and intelligence officer, reaching the rank of lieutenant colonel. At CIA, he held a variety of assignments that involved supporting the collection, processing and exploitation of HUMINT, SIGINT, and IMINT. As the President and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, he managed collection programs in the SIGINT, IMINT, and technical collection disciplines. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. He is a presidential interchange executive, a member of the Virginia state bar, a charter member of the Association of Old Crows, and a patent attorney. Dr. Clark’s Intelligence Analysis: A Target-centric Approach is now in its fourth edition. His second book, The Technical Collection of Intelligence, was published in 2010.