"Singer and Wildavsky's distinction between a zone of peace and a zone of turmoil resonates as a crisp and straightforward distinction that possesses much explanatory power and is embedded in a deep political insight. That distinction is, in my opinion, destined to become the way we think of the new world order. I know of no recent book that competes with this one for its scope and vision combined with nontechnical analysis."

—Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University

Not applicable: This is the first edition of this work published by CQ Press.

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List of Tables
Acknowledgments
Introduction

Part I. The Real World Order

1. A Tale of Two Worlds
Why We Will Be Better Off

2. Democracy and Modern Wealth Are New in the World
Democracy and Peace
International Relations in the New "No-War" Parts of the World
The New World of Geo-Economic Conflict
Objections
Internal Divisions within States
Power in the New World
A Basis for Peace?
Appendix 2.1: Expanding the Zones of Peace and Democracy
Appendix 2.2: How Much of an Exception Is the U.S. Civil War>

3. Zones of Turmoil and Development
Overall Perspectives
Military Facts
New Influences
Economic Development
The Development of Democracy
Five New Forces

4. What Difference Do Nuclear Weapons Make?
Nuclear Weapons and the Relationship between Zones of Turmoil and Zones of Peace
Nuclear Weapons in the Zones of Turmoil
Two Possibilities for the Future

5. What the Last World Order Left Behind
The Fallacy of Normalcy
The Future of the Former Soviet Union
Russian Prospects
Revolution against Communism
Russia's Foreign Policy
What Happened to Soviet Power?
Russia's Place in the World

Part II. New Policy Thinking for the Real World Order

6. Supranations and Subnations—Rebirth of Federalisms
A. Reforming the United Nations
B. A Single "Europe" or Two "Europes"
C. Two Forms of Subnationalism
Appendix 6.1: Sample List of Members of UN Democratic Caucus and Possible Allocation of Votes

7. Policy for the Zones of Turmoil and Development
Will "the South" Be against "the North"
A Clash of Civilizations Is Not the Next Phase of World History
Emigration Is Not the Answer
U.S. Self-Interest
Altruism
Overall Perspective for Policy
An Allegory
Encourage Democracy?
More and Different Foreign Aid
Difficulties in Supporting Democracy
Reducing Violence
Making It Possible for Multiethnic States to Survive in Eastern and Southern Europe
The Need to Distinguish among Nationalists
Supporting Democracy

8. Shaping U.S. Policy on Intervention
A Peacetime Army for the United States
The Only Political-Military Superpower (Unfortunately)
Intervention in Specific Cases
What Kind of Multilateralism?
U.S. Leadership: Sooner and Later
A Willing but Careful Interventionist

9. American Foreign Policy for the Real World Order
Fashionable Pessimism
Bringing Realism Up to Date
Policy Suggestions Reviewed
The Implications of Optimism

Index