Lucid and compelling, this is an essential guide to the turbulent future of Hong Kong. The authors begin with a concise historical overview, tracing how Hong Kong with its unique geographical setting, "textbook" freemarket economy, and industrious population, developed into one of the world's richest territories. Based on their own expertise in policy choices and a collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors applied a scientific model of decision making to Hong Kong's unknown future.

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Preface

Part 1. Background to Hong Kong

1. To Go or Stay?
The Last Fifteen Years
Mass Emigration
A Preview—China after Deng
Coming Attraction—Hong Kong after Deng

2. An Overview of Hong Kong
Demography
Economic Policies
Private Enterprise
The Rule of Law
Prosperity
In the Context of History
Ensuring the Future

3. The Sweet and Sour of China
A Transformed Economy
Political Reform in Hong Kong
Summary
In the Context of History

4. Words Have Meaning—or Do They?
Mao's Legacy
"Economics Takes Command"
The Legal Issues
The Future of Hong Kong Government

Part 2. Forecasting the Future

5. China after Deng
Method of Analysis
Policy Satisfaction vs. Political Satisfaction
Practical Applications
Modern China
Hong Kong's Autonomy

6. The Future of Hong Kong
Freedom in the New Hong Kong
The Level of Autonomy

7. Fortune Cookies
General Warning Signals
Economic Flashpoints
Political Reforms

Appendixes

A. Joint Declaration of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong

Annex I. Elaboration by the Government of the People's Republic of China of Its Basic Policies Regarding Hong Kong

Annex II. The Sino-British Joint Liaison Group

Annex III. Land Leases

Memoranda (To Be Exchanged Between the Two Sides)

B. The Forecasting Model and Its Track Record

The Logic of the Model
Perceptual Analysis
Estimating the Model
How Can the Model Be Estimated?
Model Output
Sample of Published Predictions

Index

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Julius Silver Professor of Politics and Director of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is an expert on international conflict, foreign policy formation, the peace process, and nation-building. He is the author of many books, including The Logic of Political Survival (with Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow); War and Reason (with David Lalman); Predicting Politics; The Strategy of Campaigning (with Kiron Skinner, Serhiy Kudelia, and Condoleezza Rice); and The War Trap. He is the Managing Partner of Mesquita & Roundell, LLC, a consultancy. In 2007 he won the DMZ Peace Prize for contributing to the advancement of peace on the Korean peninsula. He received the Lifetime Achievement Award from the Conflict Processes Section of the American Political Science Association and the Distinguished Scholar Award from the Foreign Policy section of the International Studies Association in 2008. He is a former Guggenheim Fellow, recipient of the Karl Deutsch Award, and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Council on Foreign Relations.