There is a growing need in both the intelligence community and academic programs for a text offering a basic foundation in critical thinking. Pherson and Pherson offer a straightforward, easy-to-use handbook based on the core principles of critical thinking in intelligence analysis. This indispensible text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: how do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? And, how do I convey my message effectively?
Drawing upon their years of teaching experience, Pherson and Pherson have made sure that the book is richly illustrated with useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques for arriving at the best possible analytical products, and a set of carefully crafted case studies at the end of the book tie directly to end of chapter questions, allow readers to self-assess. Also, each of the book’s chapters are organized the same way, making it easy for analysts to trace the key steps:
- Setting the Stage
- Looking More Deeply
- Key Takeaways
- Considering the Case Study
FEATURES & BENEFITS:
- Includes six purpose-built case studies on national intelligence, homeland security, and law
enforcement issues to illustrate how to apply these critical thinking skills. - “STOP!” feature boxes throughout challenge readers to rethink an issue, inviting them to question
basic assumptions before proceeding to the next steps. - “What SAT’s Apply?” feature boxes tie critical thinking methods to formal structured analytic
techniques for solving problems. - Richly illustrated with tables, figures, and other graphics to help readers schematize problems and
trace solutions. - “Analyst’s Roadmap” provides an at-a-glance “map” for readers depicting the best practices involved in perfecting the analytical product.
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Table of Contents
Introduction
Part I. How Do I Get Started?
- Who Are the Customers?
- What Are the Key Questions?
- What Is the Broader Context For Analysis?
- How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
- What Is My Analytic Approach?
- Can Collaboration Contribute To a Better Answer?
Part II. Where Is the Information I Need?
- How Do Models Help My Analysis?
- What Types Of Information Are Available?
- Can I Trust My Sources?
- How Should I Evaluate Sources On the Internet?
Part III. What is My Argument?
- Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
- Can I Make My Case?
- Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
- How Do I Deal With Politicization?
- How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?
Part IV. How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
- Is My Argument Persuasive?
- How Should I Portray Probability and Levels Of Confidence?
- How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
- How Do I Present My Message In the Most Compelling Way?
- How Do I Know When I Am Done?
Part V. Case Studies
- Countering the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Stuxnet and its Broader Implications
- Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany
- The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers
- Financial Crisis in the United States: Chronic or Avoidable?
- Yemen: The Next Afghanistan?
Bio(s)
Katherine Hibbs Pherson
Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, teaches and advises on the use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques to intelligence analysts in the U.S. Government’s Intelligence and Homeland Security Communities. Ms. Pherson and her company work directly with U.S. Government agencies and in partnership with a number of companies on strategic planning, security, and analysis projects for the U.S. Government. Ms. Pherson completed a 27-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in intelligence and security analysis and resource management in 2000. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening and the implementation of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence’s Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community’s involvement in rebuilding the penetrated U.S. Embassy in Moscow. Ms. Pherson received her A.B. in Hispanic Studies from Vassar College, an M.A. in Spanish Linguistics and Latin American Studies from the University of Illinois, and an M.A. in Communications from the University of Oklahoma. She is a recipient of the CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal and the Intelligence Community’s National Distinguished Service Medal.
Randolph H. Pherson
Randolph H. Pherson, the President of Pherson Associates, teaches critical thinking skills and advanced analytic techniques to analysts in the intelligence, homeland security, and law enforcement communities as well as in the private sector. Mr. Pherson completed a 28-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously, at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning process for the CIA as Chief, Strategic Planning and Management Staff under the Deputy Director for Planning and Coordination (ExDir). He was involved in the development of several collaborative computer networks and was an active proponent of alternative futures analytic techniques. Mr. Pherson is the recipient of both the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his A.B. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in International Relations from Yale University.
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